KURS ISHI

INTRODUCTION The global market for agricultural commodities alone reached an estimated USD 1.8 trillion in 2023, while the energy market, encompassing oil and gas, exceeded USD 4.5 trillion [1]. In Uzbekistan, the volume of foreign trade turnover grew by 23.8% in the first nine months of 2023, reaching USD 44.7 billion, with exports increasing by 23.3% to USD 17.7 billion and imports rising by 24.1% to USD 27.0 billion [2]. This expansion highlights the country's increasing integration into global value chains (GVCs), which themselves are undergoing significant transformation due to geopolitical shifts, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences. Understanding these dynamic forces is critical for national economic stability and sustained growth, especially given the observed volatility in key sectors and the pronounced impact of global events on local markets. Recent years have witnessed unprecedented supply chain shocks, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, which have exposed vulnerabilities in global production and distribution networks, leading to significant fluctuations in demand elasticity across various sectors [3]. For instance, global shipping costs surged by over 400% during the pandemic's peak, directly impacting import-dependent economies and consumer prices [4]. In Uzbekistan, these disruptions have led to challenges in ensuring a stable supply of critical goods and managing inflationary pressures, with the annual inflation rate reaching 9.2% in 2023 [5]. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of these dynamics is essential to develop robust strategies for economic adaptation and sustainable development in an increasingly interconnected and volatile global landscape. Internationally, economists have made significant contributions to understanding these complex interactions. Michael Porter (1980) demonstrated in his seminal work that competitive advantage is derived from a firm's ability to create superior value, influencing both demand generation and supply chain efficiency in global markets [6]. Paul Krugman (1991) proposed models of international trade that account for economies of scale and product differentiation, explaining patterns of trade diversification and their impact on global demand and supply [7]. Jeffrey Sachs (2005) analyzed the macroeconomic implications of global demand and ...